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Astral Codex Ten’s Open Thread 456 is a weekly community post combining reader discussion with updates on meetups, election guides and AI-related projects. It also solicits responses to a survey about AI safety grantmaking and highlights a real-money prediction market focused on AI.
Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, its weekly forum for reader questions and discussion, alongside updates on local meetups, election resources and projects related to AI. The post also asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to complete a survey that assigns value to about 80 AI safety accomplishments.
The post describes the open thread as a place where readers can “post about anything you want” and ask informal questions. It points readers to the blog’s unofficial subreddit, Discord and bulletin board, as well as in-person meetups. The author says most of the blog’s content is free, with some material available to subscribers.
Several local updates are listed, covering meetup changes in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia. The Boston ACX meetup group had completed a Greater Boston general-election voting guide. The author said they might publish more guides and were still exploring whether one could be made for the Bay Area.
The post also names an endorsement: the author says the group’s main San Francisco endorsement is Scott Wiener for Congress. It reminds readers that the San Francisco mail-in ballot registration deadline was the end of that Monday. Separately, a Bay Area meetup was scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. in San Francisco. The post does not give a year for those dates.
For an AI grantmaking project, the author is seeking input from people experienced in AI or grantmaking. The survey asks respondents to assign utility weights to roughly 80 AI safety accomplishments. A second, alternate survey asks participants to predict how the author would answer the first, which the post says could help distinguish differences in worldview from random variation in how people assign weights.
The post also promotes MNX, a real-money prediction market on AI announced by Stephen Grugett, identified in the post as a grantee and Manifold Markets co-founder. According to the description, the market offers contracts tied to AI company stocks and revenues, as well as targets for the Epoch Capabilities Index. The post says Polymarket and MNX were both pricing Anthropic at around $2 trillion, despite discussion of its API value falling from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. These are market prices reported in the post, not verified company valuations.
Finally, the post points readers to Common Notes, a project by Goodheart Labs described as “Twitter Community Notes, but for everything.” The post says it combines AI-written notes, user-written contributions and user voting, with a browser extension intended to display notes across websites, including the blog itself.
How the Thread Connects ACX Projects
Open Thread 456 is not a single breaking development; it brings several community activities together in one recurring post. Its practical value is to give readers a central place to find meetup details, voter information and calls for participation, while also directing attention to projects in AI funding, forecasting and online annotation.
The grantmaking survey could contribute opinions to a project aimed at modeling how AI safety achievements are valued. The post does not say that survey results will determine grants or describe a completed funding decision. Its request for a second set of predictions is intended to help the author interpret responses, rather than treating every difference in scores as evidence of a different worldview.
The MNX and Common Notes items point to separate efforts to apply market forecasting and collaborative annotation to AI or online information. Readers should distinguish those project descriptions from independently established outcomes: the post introduces the services and their intended functions, but does not provide evidence of their performance, adoption or long-term effects.
AI safety achievement tracking journal
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A Recurring Community Bulletin
Astral Codex Ten presents these open threads as recurring discussion spaces rather than conventional reports focused on one event. This installment combines open-ended reader conversation with notices from the blog’s wider community and information about projects associated with its author or contributors.
The post references earlier work on modeling AI grantmaking but does not explain that work in detail. It frames the new survey as another step in gathering judgments about different AI safety accomplishments. Likewise, the election guide and meetup notices are local updates, not a comprehensive account of voting or events across the listed locations.
Several items are prospective or time-sensitive. The author says more election guides may follow and that the Bay Area guide was still under consideration. The San Francisco registration reminder and Oct. 24 meetup are anchored to dates in the post, but the source text does not identify the year, so their present status cannot be inferred from the post alone.
“This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.”
— Astral Codex Ten post author
prediction market platform for AI stocks
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Dates and Project Results Remain Open
The source does not provide a publication date or year for the Monday registration deadline and Saturday, Oct. 24 meetup. Readers cannot tell from this text whether those dates are upcoming or have passed. It also does not give further details on the changes to meetups in the seven named locations.
The post does not report survey results, explain how the AI safety utility weights will be used, or say whether the survey has influenced grant decisions. The descriptions of MNX and Common Notes come from the post; it provides no independent assessment of market activity, the accuracy of forecasts, the quality of notes or the reach of the browser extension.
The comparison between Anthropic prices on prediction markets and discussion of a fall from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion is not accompanied by a definition of the valuation measure, the contracts’ terms or the relevant timestamp. Those figures should be read as a description of market pricing and discussion in the post, not as a confirmed change in Anthropic’s value.
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Survey, Meetups and Guides
The author invited qualified readers to complete the AI grantmaking survey and, if they had time, its alternate version. The post gives no closing date or planned date for publishing results. It also says the author may share additional election guides in the following week and was still considering a Bay Area guide.
Readers interested in local events can check the post for meetup changes and the listed San Francisco gathering, while confirming dates independently because the year is not specified. The post also directs readers to MNX and Common Notes for information about those projects, but does not announce a future launch milestone or results report for either one.
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Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is a weekly Astral Codex Ten discussion post where readers are invited to ask questions and talk about a range of subjects. This installment also carries community and project updates.
What does the AI grantmaking survey ask?
It asks people familiar with AI or grantmaking to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An alternate version asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first survey.
What is MNX?
According to the post, MNX is a real-money prediction market focused on AI, with markets tied to AI company stocks, company revenues and Epoch Capabilities Index targets. The post does not independently verify its market prices or performance.
What is Common Notes?
Goodheart Labs describes Common Notes as a system for showing community annotations across websites. The post says it uses a combination of AI-written notes, user contributions, user voting and a browser extension.
Are the meetup and registration dates still current?
The post refers to a Monday registration deadline and a meetup on Saturday, Oct. 24, but does not state the year or publication date. The text alone cannot establish whether either date is still upcoming.
Source: rss
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